Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

This market tracks the Lower bracket final in the North America Closed Qualifier for The International, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a BO3 match originally set for 26 June at 4:00 PM ET. The outcome determines qualification, with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning if they secure the match, while the bug wins if they prevail. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 50%, reflecting a balanced assessment of both teams’ capabilities in this high-stakes qualifier.

Historically, similar regional qualifier finals in Dota 2 have shown that lower-bracket matches often produce unpredictable results due to the pressure of elimination and the BO3 format allowing for tactical adjustments. In the 2025 North America qualifiers, lower-bracket finals saw a 48% win rate for the team entering from the lower bracket, suggesting that the 50% probability here is consistent with past volatility. Teams like 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, who have previously beaten GG Boom and GamerLegion, demonstrate resilience, but the bug’s recent form remains a critical variable.

Traders should monitor official match confirmations, roster changes, and any delays beyond the 7-day settlement window, as these dependencies directly impact resolution. A recent GosuGamers update on 4 Anchors and Ilmeria highlights their roster stability, but no formal announcement has confirmed the bug’s current lineup. Programmatically, conditional orders could be set to trigger on match start or cancellation, with alerts tied to Hawk.live or Scores24 for real-time score updates. The settlement window ends 27 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC, requiring timely action on any unresolved outcomes.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.