WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil needs to close above the market’s strike level on the settlement date, so the relevant check is the official front-month WTI futures price at the close rather than intraday spikes. With the crowd pricing this market at **0% YES**, the implied view is that the contract is already so far out of the money that a finish above the threshold would require an unusually sharp late-session move or a jump in the reference contract before expiry.[6][18]

For context, front-month WTI has recently been trading in the mid-70s to low-80s range in public price feeds, with some late-July quotes around $74.40 and others showing about $82.67, underscoring how much the exact reference and timestamp matter when a market settles on a precise close.[11][9] In programmable trading terms, this is the sort of market a power user would monitor with a price trigger on the underlying contract, then pair with conditional orders or an alert bot that watches the official close window rather than relying on a single headline quote.[18][8]

The main catalysts are scheduled energy data, OPEC+ messaging, inventory reports, and any US macro release that shifts the dollar or growth outlook, because these can move crude rapidly inside a single session. Trading Economics and recent market coverage note that oil has been reacting to supply and economic data, while live contract pages show the front month can gap materially from one session to the next.[10][19][9] For a rules-based approach, the key dependency is whether the settlement reference contract remains pinned near the current band or breaks into a new regime before the close.[18][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.