Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private market valuation must reach the listed threshold on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) before 31 December 2026 to trigger a “Yes” outcome. The current NPM price sits at $1.14 trillion as of early July 2026, already 18% above its Series H-1 round of $965 billion [1][2]. Historically, secondary-market valuations for top AI firms have surged rapidly post-funding: Anthropic jumped from $650 billion in early May to nearly $992 billion by late May 2026, then to $1.14 trillion by July [2][8]. Prediction markets now assign 83% probability that Anthropic’s NPM valuation will exceed OpenAI’s by June 2026, reflecting a strong base rate for upward momentum in this cohort [3].

A programmatic trader would monitor three catalysts: new funding rounds, NPM daily updates at 1:00 PM ET, and any public announcements of enterprise revenue or profitability milestones. The latest $65 billion raise in May 2026, led by Altim Capital and Sequoia, directly propelled the valuation leap [6][11]. Traders should script automated checks on the NPM endpoint for Anthropic, flagging any daily price crossing the threshold. Recent crypto prediction markets show 99% confidence in Anthropic joining the trillion-dollar club by end-2026, with 95% odds for $1.1 trillion and 78% for $1.5 trillion [4]. The current 12% YES probability on this specific threshold suggests the market expects a higher bar than $1.5 trillion, requiring careful calibration of the target amount against secondary-market trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.