S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market asks whether the SPY ETF will close above a specific threshold on 20 July 2026, a date that has already passed in the real world given today is 21 July 2026. Historical data shows SPY reached an all-time high of $757.62 on 2 June 2026 and closed at $732.97 by 24 June 2026, with a current price near $744.48[1][2]. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the threshold likely exceeds the asset’s peak performance in the first half of 2026, making a YES outcome mathematically impossible unless the settlement refers to a future year misaligned with the calendar.

Programmatic traders would treat this as a dead market by querying the settlement timestamp against the actual closing price on 20 July 2026, which is now a fixed historical value. A bot would simply fetch the official close from a reliable feed like Digrin or Macrotrends, compare it to the strike, and resolve the outcome without waiting for crowd sentiment[1]. This approach mirrors how conditional order systems handle expiry checks: if the event date is in the past, the resolution is deterministic and requires no further market data.

Key catalysts for similar equity markets usually include quarterly earnings, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and major economic releases like CPI or GDP, but none apply here since the date is past. Traders evaluating tooling should note that any market with a settlement window ending after the event date is effectively a historical bet, not a forward-looking one. Recent analysis of SPY’s 2026 trajectory confirms the index has not breached $760.40 since its 52-week high, reinforcing the implausibility of a higher close[2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.