Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-6.5) vs Karmine Corp (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs Karmine Corp (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-7.5) vs Karmine Corp (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs Karmine Corp (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-6.5) vs Karmine Corp (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between Karmine Corp and Nongshim RedForce in the VCT Champions Group D, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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