Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 27% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs GIANTX (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs GIANTX (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
Market context
GIANTX and Team Heretics are due to play a best-of-three in VCT EMEA Stage 2 Group Omega, with the fixture listed for Friday at 2:00 PM EDT and both teams shown on recent match pages as part of Week 3 group play.[2][6] For a market showing 0% YES, the practical read is that the price is treating the outcome as either fully unavailable to one side or already effectively settled elsewhere in the information stack, so a power-user would first verify whether the event page has updated, been moved, or been completed before relying on any trading signal.[2][6]
Recent comparable meetings point to Team Heretics being the stronger side overall, although the most recent listed head-to-head in January 2026 went to GIANTX 2-0.[7][8][10][17] Across the fuller recent series, Team Heretics have won more of the match-ups and hold the better aggregate head-to-head record, while bookmaker-style prices on match pages have generally favoured Heretics as well.[1][7][9][10][17] Programmatically, that means a model keyed to opponent strength and recent form would likely start Heretics as the baseline favourite, but it should still weight map volatility in a BO3 and avoid overfitting a single upset.
The main catalysts are operational rather than strategic: whether Riot, the league page, or the event tracker confirms the match is live, delayed, postponed, or forfeited, because those states decide whether the market resolves to a side or to 50-50 under the rules.[2][20] A bot or conditional-order workflow should therefore watch the official schedule status, live series state, and any bracket or server-side notices, then re-price only once the match has actually started or been conclusively abandoned; if the fixture slips beyond the seven-day window without a winner, the fallback outcome changes materially.[2]
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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