Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 71% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs LOUD (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs LOUD (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-6.5) vs G2 Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-4.5) vs G2 Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-5.5) vs G2 Esports (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-7.5) vs G2 Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-8.5) vs G2 Esports (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-9.5) vs G2 Esports (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 29% |
| Match Winner | 2% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs LOUD (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs LOUD (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs LOUD (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs LOUD (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs LOUD (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs LOUD (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs LOUD (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: g2 esports vs loud (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group omega stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between G2 Esports and LOUD in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for August 7 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas St… on Kalshi Fees
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