Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 34% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TEC Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
All Gamers and TEC Esports will contest the upper bracket final of VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins on 12 August at 04:00 ET, with the winner advancing directly to the stage finals. This best-of-three match represents a critical checkpoint in China's regional qualification pathway; the loser drops to the lower bracket and faces elimination risk. The current 100% implied probability suggests either exceptional clarity around team form or insufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty.
Historical precedent from VCT China tournaments shows upper bracket finals rarely cancel outright, though schedule shifts within the region occur with moderate frequency due to venue coordination across multiple time zones. When matches do proceed, the outcome typically correlates with recent scrim performance and roster stability rather than seeding alone. TEC Esports has demonstrated inconsistent map pool execution in prior stage play, whilst All Gamers showed stronger fundamentals in qualifying rounds, though neither team commands the dominance that would justify absolute certainty in a live competitive environment.
Traders should monitor official VCT China communications for any schedule amendments or roster changes in the 48 hours preceding match start. Conditional order logic should account for the 7-day resolution threshold; if the match is postponed beyond 19 August without completion, the market settles 50-50 regardless of partial play. Stream availability and broadcast delays occasionally affect real-time settlement data, so cross-referencing official scoreline confirmation against multiple sources reduces execution risk for automated settlement monitoring.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT Chin… on Kalshi Fees
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