LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Shopify Rebellion and Disguised are meeting in an LCS regular-season best-of-three, with the market settling on which team wins the series rather than on map count. The current **100% YES** pricing leaves no visible disagreement in the crowd view, which is the sort of setup that usually reflects either a decisive pre-match edge, stale inventory, or thin participation rather than a balanced live line.

The cleanest comparable read comes from their most recent regular-season meeting: Shopify Rebellion beat Disguised 2–0 on 16 May 2026, ending a five-match losing streak in the process.[1][2] That result matters because repeat matchups in League of Legends often hinge on draft adaptability and side selection more than broad team reputation, so prior head-to-heads can be a useful prior when modelling series outcomes programmatically. A bot or conditional-order workflow would typically weight the earlier 2–0 as a baseline, then adjust for roster continuity, patch state, and any schedule compression before the 7-day delay cutoff.

For traders watching catalysts, the main variables are whether the official match start time remains intact, whether either roster has late substitutions, and whether a postponement pushes the contest past the market’s settlement window, which would force a 50–50 outcome under the rules. In practice, a rules-aware automation stack should monitor league schedule updates, team announcements, and match-centre status changes up to the scheduled start, then stop treating the market as a straightforward binary if the fixture is cancelled, abandoned, or not completed within the stated window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.