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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 70% Game 1 Winner 63% Game 2 Winner 61% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 56% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $120K Closes: 16 Aug 2026
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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner70%
Game 1 Winner63%
Game 2 Winner61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
O/U 2.5 Games47%
Any Player Penta Kill47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?44%
Game Handicap: SR (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5)38%
First Blood in Game 2?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?38%
First Blood in Game 1?37%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 70% YES probability for LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and Dignitas in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 15 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" i…

Methodology

We track LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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