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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 90% Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) 76% Game 1 Winner 75% Game 2 Winner 75% Volume: $97K Liquidity: $379K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)76%
Game 1 Winner75%
Game 2 Winner75%
Game 3 Winner75%
Game 4 Winner60%
O/U 3.5 Games56%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 3?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)45%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?35%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?32%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: lyon vs shopify rebellion (bo5) - lcs playoffs stands at 90% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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