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LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Game 2 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Any Player Quadra Kill 100% Any Player Penta Kill 100% Volume: $506K Liquidity: $1.0M Closes: 6 Aug 2026
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LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 2 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Any Player Quadra Kill100%
Any Player Penta Kill100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors90%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Odd/Even Total Kills10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors1%
Odd/Even Total Kills1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5)0%

Market context

DN SOOPers Challengers meet T1 Academy in an LCK Challengers League Bo3, and the current crowd price at 0% YES is far below what the wider match data suggests. T1 Academy has been one of the stronger Challengers sides in the 2026 season, sitting near the top of the Challenge Group on Liquipedia and carrying a marked edge in recent results, while DN SOOPers Challengers have been much less consistent in the same phase of the competition.[4][2]

For traders building around a programme rather than a hunch, this market is better treated as a live event-state problem than a binary opinion: the relevant inputs are the official start, whether the series actually launches, and whether a winner is completed before the 7-day delay rule kicks in. The teams have already met in this cycle, with T1 Academy winning the April Bo3 2–1, and matchup trackers also show T1 ahead on recent form and series pricing, which helps explain why 0% looks like an obvious outlier rather than a neutral read.[15][9][7]

The main catalysts are operational rather than narrative: any schedule change, broadcast delay, or cancellation notice can flip settlement mechanics as much as the in-game result. The listed fixture time places the series on 6 August, and public schedule pages show the same matchup in the Round 3–4 Challenge Group window, so a power user monitoring the market would want automated checks on official match pages, live score feeds, and any rescheduling signals before placing conditional orders or copy-trading into the close.[1][12][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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