LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Dignitas face LYON in a best-of-three regular-season LCS match, with the market settling on the series winner if it is completed normally. The current 19% YES price for Dignitas implies a clear underdog position, and the most recent comparable meetings support that reading: LYON beat Dignitas 2-1 in April 2026, while LYON also won the earlier 2026 Lock-In meeting 2-0, giving LYON the edge in recent head-to-head series.[1][3][10][13][14]

For a programme or trading bot, the cleanest way to model this market is as a series-outcome event with a live dependency on whether the match is actually played to completion, because cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days forces a 50-50 resolution rather than a team win. The available match listings place the series on 9 August 2026, but the exact start time varies across trackers, so automated monitoring should key off official schedule confirmation and any broadcast or lobby-status changes before treating the market as live.[2][8]

The main catalysts are roster and schedule confirmation, plus any late event changes that affect whether the Bo3 reaches a full result within the settlement window. The matchup has already produced one-sided LYON wins and a closer 2-1 series, which means traders using conditional orders or copy-trading logic would usually watch for line-up news and pre-match status updates rather than relying on the headline probability alone.[1][3][10][12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.