LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Conviction and Contingent Esports were scheduled to play a best-of-three in the North American Challengers League group stage, with the listed start around midnight UTC on 7 August and the market set to resolve on the series winner, or to 50-50 only if the fixture is not completed under the stated rules. Public match pages currently show Conviction as the market favourite, with implied match odds around 1.41 versus 1.535 for Contingent on one feed, while another tournament table places Conviction lower in the group standings after a poor start and Contingent among the early leaders.[2][4][13][14]

For a programme or bot that is monitoring this market, the useful read is that a 100% crowd-implied price usually reflects either a stale book, a near-certain scheduling outcome, or a market that has not yet updated to the actual match state. Comparable listings on stats sites also show no prior head-to-head in the past six months, which means there is little direct series history to anchor a model and the first reliable signal is the official match start and score progression rather than reputation alone.[5][10][12] In practical terms, a conditional-order or copy-trading workflow should treat the market as binary on completed games, but keep a separate branch for the non-completion clause if the match is delayed, abandoned, or otherwise not finished.

The main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: confirmation that the series is live, any late schedule shift from the league page or scoreboard, and whether the BO3 reaches a recorded winner before the seven-day fallback window expires.[1][9][18] As of the current listings, the match is marked upcoming rather than finished, and multiple feeds still show no live stream or scoreline, so any automation should watch for the first authoritative update from the event page before assuming settlement risk has cleared.[2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.