LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

Market context

HANJIN BRION and BNK FEARX are scheduled for a best-of-three in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, with the market set to resolve from the match result or fall back to 50-50 only if it is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond the settlement window. The current 47% YES implies a near coin-flip, which is consistent with a series where the favourite has not been priced far ahead and where small roster, draft, or map-side edges can swing the outcome quickly.

The cleanest comparable read is the recent head-to-head: HANJIN BRION beat BNK FEARX 2-0 on 7 August, but pre-match pricing for that series still had FEARX as the side with a stronger case, which shows the market can move sharply on short-run form and draft quality. For programme-driven trading, that means automated entries should treat the prior result as a datapoint, not a stable baseline: recent series scoreline, side selection, and any repeated champion priorities matter more than overall branding or historical reputation.

The main catalysts before settlement are simple: confirmation that the match starts on time, any schedule slip into the fallback window, and any last-minute format or venue change. Because the series is due to begin on 21 August and must be rescheduled within 14 calendar days to avoid the standard win/loss resolution, a trader using conditional orders or bots would typically key off official start-state updates first, then price the live market only once the match is locked in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.