Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

TEAM VISION and Team Resilience will compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 12 August at 10:00PM ET. The market currently prices TEAM VISION's victory at 86%, reflecting their standing as the favoured side heading into this opening round fixture. Resolution depends on a completed match outcome; if play extends beyond 7 days without conclusion or the fixture is cancelled outright, the market settles 50-50.

Historical precedent from prior International tournaments shows that opening-round matches between established and emerging rosters often see significant probability shifts once team rosters are confirmed and recent scrim results surface. TEAM VISION's high implied probability suggests either established competitive pedigree, recent tournament results, or roster stability advantages over Team Resilience. Comparable Group Stage matchups in 2023 and 2024 saw probabilities in the 80–90% range shift by 5–15 percentage points in the 48 hours before play, typically driven by last-minute roster confirmations or coaching staff announcements.

Traders monitoring this market should track official The International schedule updates, any roster changes announced via team social channels, and patch notes released between now and match time—Dota 2 balance patches can disproportionately favour certain team compositions. Conditional order logic should account for the 7-day cancellation clause; setting alerts for fixture postponements or venue disruptions will flag scenarios where the 50-50 settlement becomes actionable. The settlement window closes 12 August at 08:00 UTC, providing a narrow window for post-match resolution once the best-of-three concludes.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.