Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Upper bracket semifinal 2 match in The International 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, where Virtus.pro faces TEAM VISION in a best-of-three series scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on 25 June. Despite the market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% favouring Virtus.pro, live data shows TEAM VISION has already taken a 2–0 lead, suggesting the match is either underway or concluded with Virtus.pro trailing significantly[1]. This divergence between market pricing and real-time results is critical for power-users evaluating conditional order tools or copy-trading bots, as programmatically, one would flag this as a high-risk settlement scenario where the underlying event has already progressed beyond the market’s initial assumptions.

Historically, similar qualifier mismatches in Dota 2 have seen market probabilities collapse when one team dominates early, as occurred in the 2025 TI Europe qualifiers when Tundra Esports secured a 2–0 lead over Virtus.pro before the market adjusted[6]. In such cases, traders relying on static probability models often miss the catalyst: live score updates that override pre-match sentiment. For this match, the key catalyst is the official match result confirmation from Liquipedia or Strafe, which currently projects a 56.8% chance for Virtus.pro to win despite the live deficit[2]. Traders should monitor the final settlement timestamp and any cancellation notices, as delayed or unresolved matches default to a 50–50 outcome, a dependency that conditional order systems must account for programmatically.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.