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Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Ends in Daytime 90% Both Teams Beat Roshan 90% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 90% Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? 90% Volume: $865K Liquidity: $625K Closes: 9 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Ends in Daytime90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan90%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Any Player Ultra Kill10%
Any Player Rampage10%
First Blood in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?10%
Game 2 Winner1%
Match Winner1%
Game 1 Winner0%

Market context

Market consensus: 90% chance of dota 2: vici gaming vs team spirit (bo2) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Vici Gaming and Team Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 9 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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