Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
Level UP’s best-of-three against RE.Arise in EPL Masters Group B is the kind of Dota 2 market where a 100% crowd-implied price should be treated as a scheduling signal, not a forecast of map quality. For a programmatic workflow, the first step is to verify whether the event is actually live or completed, because this market only settles on a team winner if the series is played to completion; a cancellation, no-show, or delay beyond seven days pushes it to 50-50 under the rules. Live match pages show the series listed for 6 August at 09:00 UTC, with multiple match trackers marking it as an upcoming BO3 in Group B.[2][7][9]
Comparable form data points towards Level UP being the more established side in recent play. One preview lists Level UP on a 73% recent win rate and a 2-0 projection, while another notes an undefeated 4-0 map record in the group stage and a 2-0 series mark; RE.Arise is shown as competitive but with more losses, including a 2-1 series and 4-2 map record in one market overview.[1][4] Strafe and GosuGamers also place Level UP higher in ranking and give them the market edge, while one historical note says the teams have split their last two meetings with the current rosters.[8][9][17]
The key catalysts are operational rather than stylistic: check for roster confirmation, start-time changes, and whether the match page flips from upcoming to live before settling logic is applied. If a bot or conditional order is being used, it should watch the tournament feed for walkovers or technical forfeits, since those outcomes can override on-server results; recent listings already show one RE.Arise technical-forfeit result elsewhere in the same tournament context, which is relevant because admin decisions can materially affect resolution paths.[13]
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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