Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-9.5) vs Sashi Esport (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-12.5) vs Sashi Esport (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs BIG (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Sashi Esport and BIG are meeting in a best-of-three at the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, and the market is already behaving as if the result is settled: the crowd-implied YES price is 0%, while live match feeds show BIG leading 1-2 after the series reached a finished state on SofaScore.[1][2] For a programmatic trader, that means the useful task is not reading the headline price, but checking whether the contract’s resolution logic still matches the event state, especially if the source feed or market description lags the live bracket.[1][2]
The main historical frame is head-to-head and recent form. BIG and Sashi have split their prior meetings across official and league play, with EgamersWorld listing two Sashi wins to one BIG win in the matchup history, which is consistent with why Sashi has not been treated as a perennial heavy favourite in this pairing.[5] At the same time, Sashi have shown upset upside in the same qualifier ecosystem, including a 2-1 win over Virtus.pro in the EWC Open Qualifier, so models that rely only on brand size rather than recent bracket performance will misread this kind of market.[13]
The catalysts to watch are operational rather than thematic: confirmed start time, whether the match has already been completed, and whether any bracket correction changes the official winner after the live scoreline updates.[2][3][6] EsportsNow’s schedule page still lists the qualifier as active and shows other BO3s on the same day, which matters because these events can move on a tight timetable and markets often close around the scheduled window.[3][1] For tooling, the practical workflow is to poll the event page and live scoreboard, compare the official series state against the contract’s settlement conditions, and avoid assuming that a live 1-2 score automatically equals a finalised market outcome if the feed is stale or the fixture is still being administratively resolved.[1][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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