Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks in the Super DraculaN Playoffs, scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 27 June 2026. This Best of 3 series determines which team advances, with the market resolving to Inner Circle Esports if they win, or to Sharks if they prevail. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for Inner Circle Esports reflects a near-total consensus that Sharks will dominate, a sentiment echoed by Strafe users who predict Sharks to win with 86.3% of votes [1].

Historically, such extreme probability skews in esports often precede decisive outcomes, particularly when one team has already demonstrated superior form in the same tournament. In the Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1, Sharks already defeated Inner Circle 2-0 in a prior encounter, winning Mirage 16-13 and Nuke 19-17, before advancing to playoffs while Inner Circle dropped to the Lower Bracket [5]. Comparable cases show that when a team has already neutralised their opponent’s best map via veto—such as banning Nuke to disrupt Sharks’ strategy—the odds tighten significantly, yet Thunderpick still priced Inner Circle at 1.78 versus Sharks at 1.92, suggesting a slight edge for Sharks despite map control [2].

Traders should monitor real-time dependencies including player availability, map veto outcomes, and any late schedule adjustments, as these directly impact conditional order execution. A recent Strafe report confirms the match is underway at 1:40 PM local time, with Strafe users overwhelmingly favouring Sharks [1]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by setting conditional orders tied to map results, using bots to track live odds shifts on platforms like Thunderpick, and executing copy-trading strategies based on Strafe’s vote distribution [1][2]. Any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, a critical dependency for risk-managed portfolios.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.