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Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs 1WIN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group D

Five-platform snapshot of "Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs 1WIN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group D" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Map 1 Winner 59% O/U 2.5 Games 50% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 50% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 50% Volume: $278K Liquidity: $23K Closes: 10 Sept 2026
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Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs 1WIN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
59% 41% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
59% 41% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner59%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs FOKUS (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs FOKUS (+6.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs FOKUS (+9.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.550%
Match Winner39%
Map 2 Winner34%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)20%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.50%

Market context

Market consensus: 59% chance of counter-strike: fokus vs 1win (bo3) - thunderpick world championship closed qualifier group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between FOKUS and 1WIN in the Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group D, initially scheduled for September 10, …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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