Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 71% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 69% |
| Map 1 Winner | 67% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 57% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs B8 (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs B8 (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs B8 (+6.5) | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 37% |
| Match Winner | 26% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-9.5) vs B8 (+9.5) | 26% |
| Map 2 Winner | 18% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 17% |
| Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Vitality (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 71% chance of counter-strike: b8 vs vitality (bo3) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between B8 and Vitality in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 14 at 10:00AM ET. …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - Esports World… on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →