Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 96% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs BET-M 33 (+6.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs BET-M 33 (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs BET-M 33 (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs BET-M 33 (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-12.5) vs BET-M 33 (+12.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs BET-M 33 (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BET-M 33 (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BET-M 33 (-6.5) vs SPARTA (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs BET-M 33 (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs BET-M 33 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs BET-M 33 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BET-M 33 (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 33 (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
BET-M 33 and SPARTA are scheduled for a best-of-three in the CCT Europe Series #6 playoffs, with settlement tied to the match result rather than map count or round differential. The market’s 100% crowd-implied price reflects that the event is effectively being treated as a known-live fixture rather than a balanced contest, which is useful for programme-driven traders who are checking whether the contract can only resolve to the two team names or may fall back to 50-50 if the series is abandoned, delayed too long, or otherwise not completed under the stated rules. [1][6][8]
Comparable recent meetings point to SPARTA holding the clearer head-to-head edge. The sides have met at least twice in 2026, with SPARTA winning 2-1 on 8 May and again 2-0 on 23 July, giving SPARTA a 3-2 map edge across those series. Strafe also lists SPARTA slightly higher in its ranking snapshot and notes both teams coming in with modest but positive recent form, which is the sort of profile that typically matters more in BO3 pricing than raw name recognition. [3][7][9][10]
For a trader using conditional orders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the Round of 16 starts on schedule, any bracket reshuffle or walkover language from the organiser, and whether the stream or live score pages remain aligned on the match state. Liquipedia lists the playoffs as single-elimination BO3s, so once vetoes begin the key operational question is not who wins a map, but whether the series reaches an official completed result before the settlement window closes. [2][6][8]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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