S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) will close at some price level, and this market asks whether it will exceed a threshold value to be specified. The settlement hinges on the official closing price reported by market data providers at 20:00 UTC, which corresponds to the 16:00 ET close of the New York Stock Exchange. For traders building conditional order logic or backtesting algorithmic strategies, this market represents a straightforward price-level binary: the underlying asset either clears the strike or it does not, with no ambiguity in settlement data.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either an unset or extremely high strike price relative to current SPY levels, or insufficient liquidity to attract initial positions. Historical precedent suggests that S&P 500 price-level markets typically see meaningful probability shifts only when the strike sits within 2–5% of spot price; strikes further out-of-the-money attract minimal trading volume. Comparable single-day equity price markets on this platform have shown that crowd estimates stabilise most reliably in the final 48 hours before settlement, when intraday volatility patterns become clearer and macro catalysts are better defined.

Between now and settlement, traders should monitor US economic data releases—particularly any inflation or employment figures that could shift Fed rate expectations—and corporate earnings announcements from S&P 500 constituents. The Federal Reserve's communications calendar and any unscheduled geopolitical developments will influence overnight futures pricing and opening gaps. For programmatic traders, integrating real-time volatility indices (VIX) alongside order-book depth on SPY options will help calibrate position sizing relative to the strike level once it is revealed.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.