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3rd Largest Company end of July?

Five-platform snapshot of "3rd Largest Company end of July?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Alphabet 97% Company A 50% Company B 50% Company C 50% Volume: $274K Liquidity: $207K Closes: 31 Jul 2026
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3rd Largest Company end of July?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 97% 3% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 97% 3% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Alphabet97%
Company A50%
Company B50%
Company C50%
Company D50%
Company E50%
Company F50%
Company G50%
Company H50%
Company I50%
Company J50%
Company K50%
Company L50%
Company M50%
Company N50%
Company O50%
Company P50%
Company Q50%
Company R50%
Company S50%
Company T50%
Other50%
NVIDIA1%
Apple1%
Amazon1%
Microsoft0%
Tesla0%
Saudi Aramco0%
Broadcom0%

Market context

Market consensus: 97% chance of 3rd largest company end of july?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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