What price will Bitcoin hit on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s price on 13 July 2026 is the real-world event determining settlement, with spot trading data showing it closed near $63,746 that day [1][8]. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the price to stay below the implied threshold, a stance consistent with Bitcoin’s recent 45.66% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198 [1][9]. Historical mid-July performance shows similar volatility: in 2018, Bitcoin fell from $6,599 to under $6,000 by mid-July, while in 2020 it held steady before a sharp Q3 rally [3][6]. These cases frame the current probability as a reflection of post-peak consolidation rather than a structural bear market.

Traders should monitor the Federal Open Market Committee schedule for any July rate decisions, as monetary policy shifts often trigger crypto volatility [7]. Recent news highlights that Bitcoin’s price action in early 2025 was tied to institutional inflow patterns, which remain a key dependency for any breakout above $64,000 [7]. Programmatic approaches would involve setting conditional orders at $63,800 and $64,200, using bots to copy-trade whale movements detected on-chain. The settlement window ending 2026-07-14T04:00:00Z requires precise timestamp alignment with exchange data feeds to avoid slippage errors in automated strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.