What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 12 August 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across major exchanges, with settlement contingent on the closing price recorded at a specified UTC timestamp. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a narrow price range or insufficient liquidity in this particular contract—a common pattern for single-day price targets set two years forward, where volatility assumptions dominate over directional conviction.

Historical precedent suggests single-day Bitcoin price targets beyond twelve months carry minimal predictive power; the 2017–2018 cycle saw daily swings exceeding 20% during bull runs, whilst the 2020–2021 rally produced comparable volatility despite different macro conditions. For a power-user building conditional orders or bot logic around this market, the key variable is implied volatility rather than point estimates. If you're integrating this into a hedging strategy—say, triggering a larger position if Bitcoin breaches a threshold on that specific date—you'd want to cross-reference historical August volatility patterns and correlation with equity index futures, which often spike during summer rebalancing windows.

Catalysts to monitor include Federal Reserve policy announcements (typically scheduled months in advance), major cryptocurrency regulatory developments from the SEC or international bodies, and macroeconomic data releases that move risk appetite. As of early 2025, no specific August 2026 events are publicly scheduled, making this contract primarily a volatility play rather than an event-driven bet. Traders using this for portfolio stress-testing should weight it alongside realized volatility metrics and consider whether tighter, nearer-term contracts offer better signal-to-noise ratios.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.