What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will be determined by intraday volatility, macro sentiment, and any scheduled economic data releases or regulatory announcements that fall within that window. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence that Bitcoin will remain within a narrow band, or insufficient liquidity and participation in this particular settlement frame. For traders building conditional orders or algorithmic monitoring, the key is defining the price threshold—whether this market settles on a specific level breach, daily close, or intraday spike—since Bitcoin routinely moves 2–5% within a single trading session, and spot-to-futures basis can create execution slippage on bots relying on single-exchange feeds.

Historical precedent suggests that weekly Bitcoin price ranges in non-crisis periods typically span 3–8%, though August has occasionally seen lower volatility as institutional traders thin out during summer holidays. The 0% reading is unusual enough to warrant checking whether the market's price target sits far outside consensus forecasts, or whether the settlement criteria themselves are unusually strict. Comparable markets on shorter timeframes (daily or intraday) have shown similar low probabilities when the strike price is set at extreme percentiles of the distribution.

Traders should monitor US economic calendars for mid-August inflation data or Fed commentary, which historically move crypto markets. Any major exchange outages, regulatory filings, or Bitcoin network events (difficulty adjustments, large wallet movements) can also trigger the kind of directional move that determines settlement. For programmatic approaches, setting up price-level alerts across multiple data sources and maintaining a clear settlement-criteria checklist will reduce ambiguity at payout time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.