Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance has launched its curated fundraise on MetaDAO, targeting between $2 million and $4 million in USDC commitments via Solana. The sale opens on 13 July 2026, with investors committing over a four-day window where early and larger contributions secure greater allocation through a fill-boost mechanism. The market resolves to “Yes” if the “committed” figure on the official sale page reaches the title’s threshold before the 31 August 2026 deadline, regardless of later refunds.

Historically, MetaDAO raises exhibit extreme threshold adherence once soft commits materialise. Umbra’s October 2025 raise attracted $155 million in committed capital yet elected to cap at $3 million, demonstrating founder discretion over discretionary caps [3]. Similarly, Credible already holds $2.315 million in soft commits from institutional backers, suggesting the minimum $2 million target is nearly secured [1]. This pre-commitment depth mirrors Paradigm’s $2.2 million angel round for MetaDAO itself, where early institutional confidence drove rapid threshold achievement [4].

Traders should monitor Credible’s live commitment dashboard for real-time updates, noting that the raise closes four days after launch unless extended. Key catalysts include announcements of additional institutional soft commits, Solana network activity affecting transaction throughput, and any MetaDAO governance updates altering sale mechanics [7][10]. Since the resolution source is the displayed “committed” figure, programmatic traders can deploy bots to scrape the page at high frequency, triggering conditional orders once the threshold is breached. The 99% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that existing soft commits will convert to on-chain commitments before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.