Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate, leaving its 2026 enactment uncertain despite a 38% crowd-implied probability. Programmatically, traders should treat this as a conditional order dependent on Senate Banking Committee action, where the binary outcome hinges on whether the bill clears both chambers and receives presidential signature before the deadline.

Historically, crypto market structure bills face significant Senate friction; the 2023 FIT21 Act similarly passed the House but required months of negotiation before Senate passage, while earlier proposals like the Lummis-Gillibrand bill stalled entirely. This pattern suggests that a sub-40% probability reflects realistic legislative inertia rather than market inefficiency, as Senate committees often release competing drafts—such as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025—that dilute priority for the CLARITY Act[6].

Key catalysts include the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a vote on H.R.3633 and any announcements regarding a compromise with the RFIA draft. Traders monitoring this programmatically should track Congress.gov’s status tracker for a shift from “Passed House” to “Received in Senate” and subsequent committee referral updates[1]. Recent reporting notes the Senate has yet to act since the House passed the bill in July 2025, with the path to law remaining unclear due to competing legislative priorities[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.