Bitcoin price on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final close price of the BTC/USDT one-minute candle on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 27 June 2026, which will determine whether the market resolves to "Yes" or "No". This precise timestamp and source mean the outcome hinges on a single data point rather than a daily average, making it highly sensitive to intraday volatility.

Historical patterns from June 2026 show Bitcoin trading between $59,901 and $64,015, with a current price near $60,149 and extreme fear sentiment at 13 on the Fear & Greed Index[1][4]. Comparable cases from early 2026 saw prices dip to $60,074 before rebounding, suggesting that a 1% crowd-implied probability for a specific higher range may reflect caution amid recent turbulence and $3.4 billion in ETF outflows[7][8]. Programmatic traders would model this by backtesting one-minute candle closes around the target time, factoring in volatility spikes and liquidation events.

Key catalysts to monitor include scheduled macroeconomic announcements, institutional flow data, and potential regulatory updates that could trigger sharp intraday moves. Recent news highlights $768 million in liquidations and continued bearish pressure as ETF outflows persist[7]. Traders using conditional orders or copy-trading bots should set alerts for price breaks above $60,200, as this level has capped recent rallies and may signal a shift if breached[5]. The market’s resolution depends entirely on whether the candle close exceeds the defined threshold, so real-time data feeds and automated execution are essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.