Bitcoin price on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 28 June 2026, captured from the one-minute candle. This precise timestamp determines the market resolution, with any value falling between brackets resolving to the higher range.

Historically, similar low-volume weekend consolidations have preceded sharp recoveries when sentiment diverges from price action. On 28 June 2026, Bitcoin traded flat at $60,251 despite the Fear & Greed Index hitting 18, its lowest cycle reading, while price held June 26 lows across three sessions [2]. This sentiment-versus-price divergence has historically preceded rebounds, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome suggests traders expect a collapse below $56,000, contradicting the technical support observed [1][2].

Traders must monitor the unresolved moving average compression from Friday night, where MA(25), MA(7), and MA(99) remain stacked within $400 of each other above current price [2]. A break below $60,000, which occurred briefly at 15:09 UTC when price dipped to $59,935, could trigger further downside if volume remains low [4]. The key dependency is whether the weekend consolidation continues or if the extreme fear reading forces a capitulation, with Binance data serving as the sole resolution source [2][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.