In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and market breadth. Kalshi offers the only federally-regulated pathway for US participants. Manifold excels as a play-money forecasting environment without financial stakes. For traders outside America, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most liquid order books for political and digital-asset contracts |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts. Spanning elections, blockchain, athletics, research, entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house fee. Typical bid-ask spreads range 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding US). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Experienced traders with proprietary research or information advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction exchange. It welcomes US-domiciled traders who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial user growth. Trade-offs include narrower contract selection relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of real capital. This makes it an excellent venue for honing forecasting skills and engaging with community-driven prediction — though it lacks genuine profit potential. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates quantitative predictions from its analyst network without involving financial stakes. While no real money changes hands, it excels at reputation tracking and long-term geopolitical assessment. Research institutions frequently reference Metaculus data when evaluating collective forecasting performance.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting-exchange model and continues to process billions annually across sports and political contracts. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA oversight, and unmatched sports market depth. Limitations include 2-5% commission on net profits, absence of digital-asset markets, and comparatively limited political contract coverage versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For international and non-US traders seeking maximum market depth and contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies the blockchain onboarding process while preserving your connection to Polymarket's complete liquidity pool. Start trading on PolyGram →